Adventures With Xrb Gambling Bots, Scripting Raigames

A few weeks ago I decided khổng lồ play around with a site at that has a very cool social gambling game that they advertise as 99% luchồng, 1% skill. One of the interesting properties of the game is that it is a multiplayer game that is theoretically beatable if you are able to lớn out play the other players. Furthermore, there is a built in scripting interface where you can write javascript code to automate a bot that plays the game 24/7.

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The way the game works is simple. There is a hidden random number that their hệ thống generates that is greater than 1 và rounded to lớn the nearest 0.01. A counter starts counting up from one until it reaches that hidden number at which point there is a "crash". Players can cash out any time before the crash & they will get the value of the counter at the time they cashed out times their bet amount. If the "crash" occurs before they cash out, then they thảm bại their bet amount.


So for example, if the servers hidden number is 1.9, if you bet 100 & cash out at 1.8, you get 80 chips in profit. If you try to lớn wait to lớn cash out until 2.0 lớn double your money it will crash at 1.9 and you"ll lose your 100 chips. The odds are set such that the house has an edge ranging between 0% và 1% that increases the longer that you wait khổng lồ cash out.

What makes it interesting is that they (effectively) take 1% of all the bets & put them in a "bonus pool" that goes to the people who cash out the lachạy thử. Thus, in theory if you on average were lớn win a 2% bonus, that would cover your own 1% contribution khổng lồ the bonus pool & the maximum 1% house edge, & anything beyond that would be a profit.

So I phối about making a javascript bot that could effectively "snipe" the bonus by cashing out at the earliest time when the bonus was guaranteed. It tracked its own bonus results and its own cashouts to determine the house edge that was paying. Finally, it would also exploit mistakes in other bots in some complex ways. Over its last 30K games, it weighted average results had it earning slightly over 2% of the bonus which, based on the house edge it faced on average should have sầu been a solid 0.5% plus return per bet.

However, despite betting a large amount over a huge sample where I let it run 24/7 for over a week, my bot was break even. All the results are public và viewable here:


As a poker player, one piece of advice I"ve always lived by, is if you feel like you are getting scammed, stop playing immediately và figure out what is going on. So that is what I did. It took me a while lớn figure out what could possibly be going on, but I believe that I have sầu a possible explanation. Note that I am not saying that this is 100% definitively the case, but my current suspicion based on what I know is that while the site is accurately and fairly generating random "crash" values, because of the way the site implements the game around those crash values, I believe sầu that the odds are worse than they state. This is just my personal opinion based on my experience, if the developers can prove sầu me wrong, I"m open to lớn being convinced.

EvidenceAt they describe in depth how the game is "provably" fair. Basically they seeded an RNG with a hash from a bitcoin bloông xã that had not been mined when they launched the site. The even link to a JS fiddle that lets a third buổi tiệc ngọt pull crash values: You can also vì statistical analysis on the historical crash values and while I haven"t investigated this 100% in depth, but my belief is that they are fair as described.

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The odds of a crash value C being chosen are 100/101 * 1/((C - 0.01)/0.99). The 100/101 is actually what they use to lớn seed the bonus pool. If you plug in 2 for C you will get a 0.49256181899 chance of hitting a crash value of 2, which in theory would let you double your money. This exactly matches their odds calculator here:

They then go on to lớn describe the house edge in this case by saying that your expected value if you bet 100 và try to cash out at 2.0 is

0.49256181899 * 100 + (1 - 0.49256181899) * - 100 = -1.487636202

In theory, of that lost EV, 1/101 * 100 of it went khổng lồ the bonus pool và the rest went to the house.

This means that the hose edge in this case should be

(0.49256181899 * 100 + (1-0.49256181899) * -100) + 100 * 1/101 = 0.497537190905021%

Again this EXACTLY matches their odds calculator. Furthermore, I went baông xã và historically analyzed the % of games where the "crash" value is 2.0 or greater & it matches these numbers very closely.

So how could my bot not be winning? After double checking all my code to lớn convince myself that my bot was not incorrectly logging its results, I figured out what I believe sầu khổng lồ be the answer.

The way the game works, when a "crash" value of 2.00 is chosen, the game "crashes" at what appears lớn be the instant 2.00 is reached. You cannot manually cash out at 2.00 when the crash value is 2.00, the lathử nghiệm you can possible cash at is at 1.99. This means that you are systematically getting 0.01 less of a multiplier on your winnings than the odds might suggest.

The simplest evidence for this is lớn notice that if you imagine trying khổng lồ cash out instantly at 1.0, their odds say that there is absolutely no house edge in this case. Here is a screen shot of this from their own odds calculator:


Crash values of 1.00 do appear as shown here:

In reality it is entirely possible lớn try & cash out at 1.00 & khổng lồ fail & have a crash at least if you manually click the cash out button or have your bot dynamically attempt khổng lồ cash out. It is possible that if you use the "automatic cashout" at a prephối value when you choose your bet that you vì chưng get the odds that the game claims, but I believe sầu that when you trigger a cashout mid game


This is all just may opinion & may be wrong, but it is my best guess as khổng lồ what is going on based on my experience và the data from my bot over 50K rounds of play. is fun & I lượt thích the game, but I personally have sầu stopped playing there because I am not confident that the odds that the site lists reflect the odds the you actually get as a player. If anyone has proof that I am wrong I"d love khổng lồ hear it và maybe I"ll turn my bot baông xã on và have it bet tiny amount for a few thousvà more rounds to see if maybe I just got very very unlucky.

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I have no stake in or any of their competitors & this information is just my personal thoughts for entertainment value.